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One-year-ahead prediction based on PARALLAX, REACT, or MACRAME

predict.profileLadder.Rd

The function provides a one-year-ahead prediction for a given run-off triangle (i.e., estimating a new running diagonal based on some nonparametric, functional-based prediction algorithm, PARALLAX, REACT, or MACRAME).

Usage

# S3 method for class 'profileLadder'
predict(object, ...)

Arguments

object

an object of the class profileLadder which is the output from the parallelReserve() function or the mcReserve function

...

further arguments passed to predict()

Value

An object of the class profilePredict which is a list with the following elements:

reserve

The overall predicted amount of the next year payments—the new running diagonal in an extended (cumulative) run-off triangle minus the last observed diagonal (in the cumulative triangle again)

methods

Provides the information about the underlying nonparametric (functional-based) method that is used for the 1-year-ahead prediction (PRALLAX, REACT, or MACRAME)

newDiagonal

Numeric vector representing the prediction of the new running diagonal (ordered in a way that first value corresponds to the payment for the last occurrence period (typically the largest amount) and the last value corresponds with the next-year payment for the first occurrence periods—typically the smallest amount)

extTriangle

The extended run-off triangle—the R object of the class triangle that also contains the new predicted diagonal—the 1-year-ahead prediction

See also

parallelReserve(), mcReserve()

Examples

## full run-off triangle complettion
parallelReserve(CameronMutual)
#> PARALLAX Reserving 
#>     Estimated Reserve    Estimated Ultimate           Paid Amount 
#>                  8540                113699                105159 
#>          True Reserve 
#>                  7963 
#> 
#> PARALLAX method (functional profile completion)
#> 5244 	 9228 	10823 	11352 	11791 	12082 	12120 	12199 	12215 	12215 	
#> 5984 	 9939 	11725 	12346 	12746 	12909 	13034 	13109 	13113 	13113 	
#> 7452 	12421 	14171 	14752 	15066 	15354 	15637 	15720 	15724 	15724 	
#> 7115 	11117 	12488 	13274 	13662 	13859 	13872 	13947 	13951 	13951 	
#> 5753 	 8969 	 9917 	10697 	11135 	11282 	11320 	11399 	11415 	11415 	
#> 3937 	 6524 	 7989 	 8543 	 8757 	 8904 	 8942 	 9021 	 9037 	 9037 	
#> 5127 	 8212 	 8976 	 9325 	 9539 	 9686 	 9724 	 9803 	 9819 	 9819 	
#> 5046 	 8006 	 8984 	 9333 	 9547 	 9694 	 9732 	 9811 	 9827 	 9827 	
#> 5129 	 8202 	 8966 	 9315 	 9529 	 9676 	 9714 	 9793 	 9809 	 9809 	
#> 3689 	 6276 	 7741 	 8295 	 8509 	 8656 	 8694 	 8773 	 8789 	 8789 	

## one-year-ahead prediction based on PARALLAX
predict(parallelReserve(CameronMutual))
#> 5244 	 9228 	10823 	11352 	11791 	12082 	12120 	12199 	12215 	12215 	12215 	
#> 5984 	 9939 	11725 	12346 	12746 	12909 	13034 	13109 	13113 	13113 	    . 	
#> 7452 	12421 	14171 	14752 	15066 	15354 	15637 	15720 	15724 	    . 	    . 	
#> 7115 	11117 	12488 	13274 	13662 	13859 	13872 	13947 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 5753 	 8969 	 9917 	10697 	11135 	11282 	11320 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 3937 	 6524 	 7989 	 8543 	 8757 	 8904 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 5127 	 8212 	 8976 	 9325 	 9539 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 5046 	 8006 	 8984 	 9333 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 5129 	 8202 	 8966 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	
#> 3689 	 6276 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    . 	    .
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